Basic information - Greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents (excl.
LULUCF) and Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008–12.
|
|
Base-year emissions Mt CO2 |
2007 emissions Mt CO2 |
Change 2006– 2007 % |
Change 2007/base year % |
Kyoto target % |
|
Bulgaria |
132.6
(1988) |
75.5 |
5.9 |
–43.0 |
–8.0 |
|
EU-15 |
4232.9 |
4052.0 |
–1.6 |
–5.0 |
–8.0 |
|
EU-27 |
5564.0 |
5045.1 |
–1.2 |
–9.3 |
No
target |
|
|
2007 GDP Growth % |
2008 GDP Growth % |
2009 GDP Growth (est.) % |
Gross Inland Energy Consumption Change Feb.2009/ Feb.2008 % |
|
Bulgaria |
6,2 |
6,0 |
-1,6 |
-5,9 |
During the period from 2007 to 2012, Bulgaria’s
greenhouse-gas emissions are expected to increase by 27.5% (from 80135.78 Gg in
2007 to 103826.91 Gg, as compared with the maximum permitted under the Kyoto
Protocol, 127283 Gg), with gross electricity consumption in the country
increasing on average by 2.9% per year.
These predictions are contained in a consultancy document for the
Bulgarian National Allocation Plan for greenhouse-gas emission allowances
covering 2007 and the period from 2008 to 2012.
The budget shows that the roles of renewable-energy
source development and of energy efficiency are underestimated. There is a lack of incentives for funding
such projects.
The government in Bulgaria, along with most
representatives of the Bulgarian business sector (e.g. the Bulgarian Chamber of
Trade as well as the Confederation of Employers and Industrialists in
Bulgaria), maintains that increased greenhouse-gas emissions are inevitable if
economic growth is to be achieved. Several unfavorable trends in connection
with greenhouse-gas emissions are expected in the next few years: the
decommissioning of nuclear capacity coincides with accelerated industrial
growth as a whole; carbon-intensive industrial sectors such as energy,
metallurgy, construction, etc., are expected to grow at a higher rate than the
average for the economy. The relatively low income levels among the population
mean that gas-supply network extensions and measures to increase household
energy efficiency still have not been applied widely. If the predicted growth in greenhouse-gas
emissions and in the use of fossil fuels takes place as the government plans, in
view of the continuing global energy crisis arising from fossil fuel depletion,
we believe that Bulgarian industry could be in serious difficulties after 2012
and will need to purchase large amounts of greenhouse-gas emissions allowances.
Public attitudes towards Climate Change (CC)
No surveys have been carried out at the national level
on the degree of concern about climate-change issues in Bulgarian society.
Objective information about climate change tends not to reach the public due to
lack of interest in the topic among the national media and the fact that the
problem is underestimated on a political level. In general, the popular public
view is that climate change is something happening far away from Bulgaria and
nothing depends on Bulgarians, but that the EU is forcing steps to be taken at
Bulgaria’s expense. The efforts of the non-governmental sector are insufficient
to ensure that objective information reaches the general public in Bulgaria.
Thanks to the activities of non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) working in the area of climate change and of a small number of committed
journalists, a fairly clear picture has now been presented to the public that
there is no further serious controversy about the existence of anthropogenic
climate change. A significant factor in
contributing to this picture was the latest IPCC report, which we managed to
disseminate and promote among a broad range of stakeholders. Most of the Bulgarian public, however, are
mainly concerned about climate change only to the extent that they can see
unseasonable weather and unprecedented flooding every year in Bulgaria.
Most of the Bulgarian public now believes that extreme
weather events result from anthropogenic climate change. Few now believe that this is merely due to natural
cycles. There is no sociological
information in Bulgaria about how much of the population believes that climate
change is beneficial, but such a view is almost absent in the Bulgarian media
and in Bulgarian society. The Kyoto protocol is not familiar to Bulgarians, the
main reason being the collapse of the Bulgarian socialist planned economy,
which meant that Bulgaria could fulfil Kyoto requirements in relation to the
base year without making any effort, since the collapse occurred after the base
year. Accordingly, Bulgaria's greenhouse-gas emissions dropped by 56%, far
above the 8% required by Kyoto.
The Bulgarian government has been very slow in making
efforts to clarify issues of energy efficiency, renewable energy sources and
new technologies. Politicians and
representatives of the business sector still prefer to support the traditional
wasteful consumer economy. This enables
them to parasitise public procurements and the funds available in the energy
sector. Ever since the electricity
distribution companies were privatised, the higher price of energy has been
presented to the Bulgarian public as an attempt by unscrupulous foreign company
owners to defraud the Bulgarian public. In combination with continuous attempts
by the government and the energy lobby to introduce new fossil-fuel energy
capacity in order to turn Bulgaria into the "energy centre of the
Balkans", this marketing strategy has left the population unwilling to pay
for more expensive energy, even should such power be cleaner.
Opportunities exist for the rapid implementation of
measures such as fitting sulphur-scrubbers to large thermoelectric power
stations and accelerating power-plant rehabilitation. The government is making
considerable efforts to ensure the start of construction of the new Belene
nuclear power plant as a fundamental measure to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions. The development of investments in the production of renewable energy
and in energy efficiency is currently very slow. As a whole, the position of
the USA in rejecting the Kyoto protocol is well known in Bulgaria, but the
arguments used by the US administration for doing so are less widely
known. Of course most people with an
interest in the matter condemn this US policy; a small number views these
Bush-administration policies as
protection of the US national interest.
One of the main issues facing Bulgaria in 2008 is the
matter of emissions trading. A case
brought by the Bulgarian government against the European Commission and the
Court of the European Community in Luxembourg seeks a full repeal of the EC
decision of 26th October 2007 to reduce the emissions allowances allocated in
the National Allocation Plans for 2007 and for the period from 2008 to
2012. Bulgaria supports the Hungarian
position calling for an equal reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 18% for
each EU member state instead of the differentiated approach put forward by the
European Commission. Bulgaria also
supports the exclusion of the metallurgy and energy sectors from the regulations
governing the allocation of greenhouse-gas emissions allowances for the period
after 2012.
NGO activities
Non-governmental organisations in Bulgaria are visibly
active on climate change issues, but more needs to be done, as most of them are
involved with climate change issues mainly in connection with their work on
energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. Representatives of
non-governmental organisations are now always present when climate-change
issues are discussed on the media. NGOs
are also invited with increasing frequency to debates on climate change that
are organised by the government. Non-governmental organisations in Bulgaria
have made efforts to act as partners with the government in connection with the
drafting of a new Renewable Energy Sources Act.
NGOs also take part as observers in the Parliamentary Energy Commission,
where they have managed to submit 6 proposals, of which two were adopted. As a
whole, however, non-governmental organisations have very little influence in
the relevant policy-making process. This
is mainly due to the style of governance and decision-making adopted by
politicians in Bulgaria, which tends to be opaque and lacks adequate
consultation mechanisms. The Bulgarian
government’s obvious efforts to develop a fossil-fuel-based economy represent a
further obstacle excluding the adequate participation of environmental NGOs.
Together with the Stern review, the IPCC 4th
Report is an extremely important source of information which the
non-governmental sector uses in discussions, seminars, press conferences and
media interviews. NGOs in Bulgaria mainly work in the area of renewable energy
sources and energy efficiency. Their activities include public information
campaigns; practical training seminars on energy efficiency and on fitting
solar panels for hot water supplies; and advocacy to encourage the government
to provide more successful incentives for households to improve energy
efficiency by means of tax relief. Some NGOs give presentations in schools. Some have published a climate-change and
energy-efficiency handbook for teachers. For example, the NGO “Za Zemjata”
participates in a school education project on energy efficiency (SPARE). In order to increase their political influence,
NGOs are meeting ever more frequently with politicians and members of
Parliament.
Media coverage of CC
The Bulgarian media take a sporadic interest in
climate-change issues, for instance in connection with the International Day of
Action on Climate Change. Media interest
was also provoked by the Nobel Prize awarded to Al Gore and the IPCC team and
by EU summit meetings on climate change.
The media are most active when there are disputes between the Bulgarian
government and the European Commission arising from Bulgaria’s non-implementation
of measures to combat climate change. In the course of the last 12 months the
Bulgarian media have provided information on the future greenhouse-gas
emissions reduction targets in detail and relatively frequently in connection
with the specific action expected from Bulgaria in meeting its obligations as
an EU member state. In this connection
Bulgaria is usually presented in the media as a country under pressure from the
European Commission.
For example, in connection with the National
Allocation Plan for 2007 and the period from 2008 to 2012, the media only began
to cover the issue when the EC threatened to impose financial sanctions on
Bulgaria due to its long delay in drafting and submitting the plan, despite the
fact that the NGO sector reacted one whole year earlier with letters to the
administration, to the EC and to the Bulgarian media to draw attention to the
shortcomings in the drafting of the plan.
Most of the popular media support the view of the government and the
business sector that the requirements for Bulgaria to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions are excessive and detrimental to the development of the Bulgarian
economy. This was clearly demonstrated after the EC decision of 26th
October 2007 to reduce overall EU emissions by 10%, which means a 20% reduction
for Bulgaria in 2007 and a 37.4% reduction for the period from 2008 to 2012. An
extensive media campaign was organised in Bulgaria against this EC decision
after it was announced. The campaign was
driven mainly by representatives of the government, including the Minister of
the Environment and Waters as well as the Minister of the Economy and Energy,
in concert with representatives of the business sector, representatives of the
Bulgarian Chamber of Trade and of the Confederation of Employers and
Industrialists in Bulgaria, politicians, Members of Parliament, Bulgarian
Members of the European Parliament, and journalists. All of these parties asserted that the
European Commission’s policy on Bulgaria is discriminative, disseminating the
message that this decision was intended to stop the inexorable progress of the
Bulgarian economy, thus to condemn the population to poverty and unemployment. These
"arguments” were repeatedly voiced by their representatives on all
media. We were witness to yet another
ostentatious campaign depicting malevolent Europeans as trying to prevent
Bulgaria's development and to condemn Bulgaria to live in the dark and cold
because they dislike Bulgarians and only care for their own development and
welfare.
Thanks in part to our efforts to invite them to our
events and to provide them with information, a small circle of journalists has
now been created from among media specialised in the economy and a number of
radio stations. It is essential for efforts to continue in Bulgaria to broaden
the circle of journalists who are competent on climate-change issues, paying
particular attention to the most popular media which so far only raise the
subject in the event of natural disasters, disputes with the European Commission,
or sanctions imposed on Bulgaria.
Issues of adaptation to climate change are almost
unknown in Bulgarian society and are absent from government programmes as well
as from strategies on climate change. A few representatives of non-governmental
organisations deal with these issues in their activities. Two newspapers with a
profile in economics named "Kapital" and "Dnevnik" have
permanent sections dedicated to climate change; they have journalists familiar
with the topic and a relatively objective view of the issues. These newspapers have small circulation
figures but are read by the most economically active section of the population.
The results of the 4th IPCC report were widely presented in the
media, but there was a lack of in-depth comment and analysis about what the
implications are for Bulgaria.
Policies and Measures
Public debate on climate change organised by the
government was intended to stimulate opposition to the specific emissions
reduction targets imposed on Bulgaria by the EC. The arguments used by the government were
that Bulgaria is a poor country and should be allowed to continue to rely on
carbon-intensive technologies. The
government's position was to call for a longer period before Bulgarian industry
is compelled to meet European requirements. The Bulgarian government opposes
the use of the year 2005 as the base year for calculation of emission
reductions in the ETS. The argument used
by the government is that Bulgaria has only been an EU member since 2007 and
that in the year 2005, Block № 4 of the Kozloduy nuclear power plant
was working at full capacity (two of these blocks were decommissioned at the
end of 2006). Another argument was that
owing to the extensive flooding in Bulgaria during 2005, the hydroelectric
power plants were able to generate more electrical energy than usual. The official position is that Bulgaria will
manage to achieve the EC targets. Non-governmental organisations in Bulgaria
support the ambitious EU targets, but consider that they should go
further. We are calling for more radical
measures as recommended in the Stern review. The EU proposal is unlikely to
enjoy the mass support of the media or the public as long as the Bulgarian
government presents it as an obstacle to the country's economic prosperity.
Emission trading system
The government supports the Emissions Trading Scheme
and is generating expectations that considerable profits will ensue from it.
There is currently no information available about anybody in Bulgaria profiting
unduly from emissions trading. This may
occur at a later stage. The government has promised to achieve the
greenhouse-gas emissions reduction target set out in Annex I of the IPCC in the
period after 2012. However, it is
unlikely that the target can be reached without fundamental changes in the
country’s energy and economic policies.
Changes are required in the country's strategic documents, for example
in the Energy Strategy for Bulgaria adopted in 2002 concerning development
until 2015 and in the Concept for Bulgaria’s Energy Strategy put forward in
2008, along with the National Long-Term Program for Encouraging the Use of
Renewable Energy Sources. The
development of renewable energy sources is given a very low priority in
comparison with the country’s plans to develop nuclear energy and coal
mining. The Bulgarian public and
industry are not prepared for higher energy prices to support investments in
new clean technologies, renewable energy sources and energy efficiency.
Informing the public about reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, increasing energy
savings, and the potential of renewable energy sources is not a government
priority. The government continues to
uphold the mistaken philosophy of continuing economic growth using fossil fuels
and high-carbon technologies. There is
little incentive for politicians to adopt measures reaching further into the
future than the end of their own mandate.
Renewable energy
State policy on renewable energy sources is based on
the Renewable and Alternative Energy Sources and Biofuels Act (RAESBA), promulgated
in the State Gazette (SG) № 49/19.06.2007; the Energy Act,
promulgated in SG № 107/09.12.2003; the Energy Efficiency Act,
promulgated in SG № 18/05.03.2004 and the existing National
Long-Term Program for Encouraging the Use of Renewable Energy Sources
2005-2015. These documents include the following incentives: compulsory
connection of energy from renewable sources to the electricity transmission
network, simplified administrative regulation of renewable-energy generation
and the construction of the necessary installations, and preferential feed-in
tariffs for the purchase of renewable energy over the course of 12 years. The
accelerated connection of renewable energy sources to the electricity
transmission network provides more security and improved opportunities for
cash-flow planning. In fact, these short
time-frames are amongst the most significant features of the RAESBA and, in
combination with the preferential feed-in tariffs, it genuinely puts renewable
energy producers in a more favorable position than the conventional energy
sector.
The draft Energy Efficiency Act was adopted by
Parliament on first reading and sets out a framework for electrical energy
consumption to be reduced by 9% by the year 2016. Loans of up to 10000 Euros,
including a 20% grant from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(EBRD), are available under a program of the European Commission, the EBRD and
the Energy Efficiency Agency. Consumers of electricity, heat energy and natural
gas may apply for funding for energy-efficiency projects from the Energy
Efficiency Fund in accordance with Article 31 of the Energy Efficiency Act.
Another source of funding/co-funding for energy-efficiency projects is the
International Kozloduy Fund, which has an overall budget of 570 million Euros
until 2009. The EU structural funds for
the period from 2007 to 2013 also include funding for the development of energy
efficiency. According to the analysis drafted for the second national plan on climate
change, structural changes in the economy led to a drastic reduction in
end-user energy consumption by 55% up to 2002, while primary energy consumption
dropped by 45% during the same period.
End-use consumption of energy per unit of GDP during this period dropped
by 42% as compared with 28% for primary energy consumption per unit of GDP.
According to the Concept for the Bulgarian Energy Strategy until 2020,
Bulgaria’s economy is 5.6 times more energy-intensive than those of the rest of
the EC 27 countries. Bulgaria's EU accession treaty contains an obligation for
renewable energy to constitute 11% of the overall energy produced in the
country. In recent years the proportion
of energy generated from renewable sources in Bulgaria has been between 6% and
8%, mainly comprising hydroelectric power.
Immediately after the update of the European plan to cope with climate
change by 2020, the Bulgarian Vice-Premier and the Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ivailo Kalfin announced that Bulgaria can only obtain between 2% and 4% of its
energy from renewable sources and can only achieve 10% by 2020. The EC target is 16%. The minister maintained
that the reason is the high price of investment in renewable energy.
Bulgaria could be described as the European champion
in terms of the number of government documents dedicated to energy efficiency
and renewable energy sources, but in terms of the reality of energy efficiency
in the European Union, the country is at the bottom of the league. The relevant documents include the National
Short-Term Energy Efficiency Program 2005-2007; the National Long-Term Program
for Encouraging the Use of Renewable Energy Sources 2005-2015; and the National
Long-Term Energy Efficiency Program until 2015. The representatives of NGO
sector believe that renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies are
being established in Bulgaria far too slowly.
They anticipate that this state of affairs will continue, as the energy
lobby and industrialists are highly influential in the government in promoting
the development of fossil fuels.
New power plants
Currently AES is building two new lignite coal-fired
power generation blocks at the Maritza East 1 Thermal Electric Power Station
with an overall capacity of 670 MW (2 x 350 MW) which will use fuel from the
Maritza East coal basin. The investment
is valued at €1.1 billion, with 12% of the investment intended for
environmental protection. A sum of 790
million Euros has been provided by major international banks including the
EBRD. The first block is expected to be
put into operation in June 2009. AES has
promised that its sulphur scrubbers will cut sulphur emissions by over
94%. Clean combustion technology will be
used with a pulverised-fuel system.
New power plants are not currently planned. The main aim is to rehabilitate the existing
ones. Implementation of this aim has
been deliberately delayed in order to promote nuclear energy in Bulgaria as the
only realistic solution. The government of Bulgaria maintains that nuclear
energy should be fundamental to the country's energy policy. With the construction of the new Belene
nuclear power plant with two 1000 MW power generation blocks, the government
claims that the country will reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions and avoid the
need to purchase emissions allowances after 2012, in this way ensuring the
country’s energy independence. This, however, is far from reality, since the
reactors, the power-plant fuel, and the construction contractors all come from
Russia. This fact in itself excludes any
possibility of energy independence. The
government has organised a highly compromised tender procedure for the
construction of the Belene nuclear power plant.
One of the conditions of the tender was a requirement to use Russian
VVER-1000 reactors. The Bulgarian government has insisted on this project
despite the universal view of economists in Bulgaria that the project
constitutes a major risk and is uneconomic, ignoring as well the view of
scientists from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences that the project constitutes
an environmental hazard. Funding is
still being sought at the moment for this economically senseless megalomaniacal
project, as most major European banks refused to take part in it despite a
state guarantee of €600 million. The
price was initially set at €2 billion.
The sum currently referred to is between 4 and 7 billion Euros.
Other information
The Ministry of the Environment and Waters deals with
climate-change issues. The same ministry
cooperates with the Ministry of the Economy and Energy on issues related to
emissions trading.
Sources of information: